| Are we 'lucky' this season? 07:02 - Apr 12 with 951 views | LA_Tractor_Boy |
Who knows what the points total needed for promotion will be.
But what we do know is that after 40 games, 85 points will do it barring a 22 swing in goal difference.
This would be the lowest points achieved by a second place team since West Brom in 2020 and before that, Hull in 2013.
I know it means nothing and nobody will care if we win promotion, but I do think we've been a bit 'lucky' that Saints started the season so poorly and Boro have dropped so many points recently. |  | | |  |
| Are we 'lucky' this season? on 07:21 - Apr 12 with 837 views | Wacko |
No. As I wrote in a previous post, 85 is the average points total needed to win promotion as runners up for the past 17 seasons. As with the previous poster you're confusing what the 2nd placed teams get rather that what they need. We only needed 91 points to go up when we did last time, yet we achieved 96.
https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/6 | |
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| Are we 'lucky' this season? on 08:10 - Apr 12 with 686 views | TheBoyBlue |
Well in that case we were unlucky in 23 and 24 that we got such high totals yet still had to fight to the end to get promoted. Most other years we would've been home and dry with games to spare. Wouldn't have been as much fun perhaps, but swings and roundabouts! | |
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| Are we 'lucky' this season? on 08:31 - Apr 12 with 602 views | Dubtractor |
I think it's just been a more attritional league this season. Pretty certain there are more draws than usual, teams struggle to put winning runs together, lots of teams who know how to 'spoil' the game and stop teams getting a rhythm going. If we're honest that last point is what we did yesterday. |  |
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| Are we 'lucky' this season? on 08:36 - Apr 12 with 562 views | Blue_Heath |
Not really, the ref decisions in the last two games balanced out previous ones.
Other than Sheff Weds no one is really cut adrift, the bottom six have taken quite a few points which is why the points tally is lower along with a lot of draws as well. | |
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| Are we 'lucky' this season? on 08:50 - Apr 12 with 470 views | Herbivore |
If we were lucky that Saints started badly, were we also unlucky that we started badly? Without our poor overall start and taking three months to win an away game we'd probably be up there with Coventry and looking to win the title with our games in hand. I don't see that as luck to be honest, both us and Saints started badly for different reasons but we sorted ourselves out more quickly than they did. They'll finish where they deserve to finish as will we.
Boro dropping points also has little to do with luck, it's about them not performing well enough. If you look at the expected points table, Boro have underperformed by a couple of points but so have we: https://www.fotmob.com/en-GB/l
Earlier in the season, they were overperforming so the recent form dip is a bit of an adjustment. We were underperforming by a lot more and our recent good run has similarly been an adjustment closer to the norm. |  |
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| Are we 'lucky' this season? on 09:03 - Apr 12 with 409 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
| Are we 'lucky' this season? on 08:31 - Apr 12 by Dubtractor |
I think it's just been a more attritional league this season. Pretty certain there are more draws than usual, teams struggle to put winning runs together, lots of teams who know how to 'spoil' the game and stop teams getting a rhythm going. If we're honest that last point is what we did yesterday. |
I think that’s borne out by how tight it has been this season too, or at least til very recently. We’ve only just begun to see a top 5 breakaway and even now, Wrexham and Derby will still have eyes on 6th, with very few games left to play. |  |
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| Are we 'lucky' this season? on 09:08 - Apr 12 with 391 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
Whenever the points required are lower like that (and presumably higher for survival too), it is indicative of a more competitive league. A couple of years ago 4 teams at the top were clearly much better than the rest over the season. This season there have been a lot more teams that have been competitive.
Preston, Millwall, Hull have all done fantastically well. nodge, Leicester and Southampton have all had the potential and quality but have been chalk and cheese over different patches of form. Brum and Wrexham came up with momentum. Only Wednesday and Coventry have stood out particularly. Even then, Coventry have had a couple of wobbly spells and Wednesday have generally been one goal behind or level until the later stages of their matches. |  |
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| Are we 'lucky' this season? on 09:22 - Apr 12 with 330 views | Herbivore |
| Are we 'lucky' this season? on 09:08 - Apr 12 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Whenever the points required are lower like that (and presumably higher for survival too), it is indicative of a more competitive league. A couple of years ago 4 teams at the top were clearly much better than the rest over the season. This season there have been a lot more teams that have been competitive.
Preston, Millwall, Hull have all done fantastically well. nodge, Leicester and Southampton have all had the potential and quality but have been chalk and cheese over different patches of form. Brum and Wrexham came up with momentum. Only Wednesday and Coventry have stood out particularly. Even then, Coventry have had a couple of wobbly spells and Wednesday have generally been one goal behind or level until the later stages of their matches. |
There's 10 points separating 9th from 19th. There's not a huge gulf in quality between those fighting for the play offs and those looking over their shoulder at the other end. There's been decent money spent at this level over the last couple of years and most squads have decent players in them who can make life difficult. Coaches and managers at this level can set a team up to make life hard in games which makes a lot of tough, tight matches.
People say it's a weaker league this season and while the parachute teams have struggled and that's bad an impact, I'd say the average quality of the league isn't much different, arguably a bit higher. Look at the money Brum have spent and some of the players they've signed and they are mired in lower midtable. Sheffield United have a quality squad at this level and are stuck in midtable too. Leicester as a club are a mess but their squad is ridiculous for this level and they could easily go down. That wouldn't happen if the league as a whole was as weak as some suggest. | |
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| Are we 'lucky' this season? on 09:59 - Apr 12 with 218 views | Simonds92 |
| Are we 'lucky' this season? on 08:50 - Apr 12 by Herbivore |
If we were lucky that Saints started badly, were we also unlucky that we started badly? Without our poor overall start and taking three months to win an away game we'd probably be up there with Coventry and looking to win the title with our games in hand. I don't see that as luck to be honest, both us and Saints started badly for different reasons but we sorted ourselves out more quickly than they did. They'll finish where they deserve to finish as will we.
Boro dropping points also has little to do with luck, it's about them not performing well enough. If you look at the expected points table, Boro have underperformed by a couple of points but so have we: https://www.fotmob.com/en-GB/l
Earlier in the season, they were overperforming so the recent form dip is a bit of an adjustment. We were underperforming by a lot more and our recent good run has similarly been an adjustment closer to the norm. |
Add to that the 3 games where we had terrible penalty decisions go against us in the last seconds of games. Ref gets those decisions correct we're sat here with 6 more points effectively needing 4 points from 6 games to get promoted.
It is a bizarre season though because I've found us really frustrating for 60% of it and fantastic for the other 40%. We've come out with some brilliant results in big games and looked too good for the level.... and then lost to Oxford. | | | |
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