| Any finance bods got a view on this? 08:21 - Jun 12 with 1474 views | bluelagos |
https://www.theguardian.com/sc
Made a loss of $4.9Bn and is valued at $1.78Tn.
(And anyone holding any US or global funds is quite likely to end up holding a chunk of these as/when they get an listing in the US.) |  |
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:24 - Jun 12 with 1438 views | DanTheMan |
I think it's massively overvalued but what can you do.
The IPO prospectus is an absolute mess.
Cult of Musk and all that.
The annoying thing, as you've pointed out, is the fast tracking into index funds which will drag all retail investors (and pension holders) into this whilst allowing Musk to retain control. So it's public in name only really, nobody else gets a say. |  |
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:35 - Jun 12 with 1368 views | DanTheMan |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:31 - Jun 12 by StokieBlue |
The main index, the S&P has said it won't be fast-tracked and neither will Anthropic or OpenAI. That means it's going to be at least a year before SpaceX appears in the flagship index and even then it needs to be profitable to meet some of the rules.
I think Musk was counting on them bending the rules to let SpaceX in.
The Nasdaq did bend the rules but exposure to that at retail investor level will be a lot smaller than the S&P.
The valuation itself is huge and based pretty much fully on SpaceX dominating space infrastructure. If they get Starship to work reliably then that is a distinct possibility and it could easily be the most valuable company in the world. If they don't then who knows where the price would eventually go. Certainly the current price seems to be based a lot more on sentiment than fundamentals.
Who knows where it will go today, been a lot of dumping of BTC to get aboard so guess we will see. I assume we will see Tesla absorbed by SpaceX over the next few years, the implication that will happen was buried deep in the prospectus.
It's a shame it's a Musk company as the people who actually do the work there did give us this magnificent sight.
SB [Post edited 12 Jun 8:32]
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FTSE also bent the rules unfortunately, which will drag a lot of global investors in.
And on a personal level, it's meant I've not been able to get my pull requests reviewed for the last week as we prepare for one of the busiest days of trading ever. Grrr... [Post edited 12 Jun 8:36]
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:48 - Jun 12 with 1313 views | StokieBlue |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:35 - Jun 12 by DanTheMan |
FTSE also bent the rules unfortunately, which will drag a lot of global investors in.
And on a personal level, it's meant I've not been able to get my pull requests reviewed for the last week as we prepare for one of the busiest days of trading ever. Grrr... [Post edited 12 Jun 8:36]
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It's not going to be listed on the FTSE 100, it's going onto the FTSE Russell which is a large US index. There shouldn't be too much global exposure to that one.
Of course you're right to say both the Nasdaq and Russell will create some exposure as will funds adding it to their portfolios but neither will create the type of large-scale institutional investment that would have been required with a listing in the S&P.
Surprised you're not in a code freeze for this event although it sounds like effectively you are.
SB |  |
| Avatar - M101 - Pinwheel Galaxy |
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:49 - Jun 12 with 1295 views | bluelagos |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:48 - Jun 12 by StokieBlue |
It's not going to be listed on the FTSE 100, it's going onto the FTSE Russell which is a large US index. There shouldn't be too much global exposure to that one.
Of course you're right to say both the Nasdaq and Russell will create some exposure as will funds adding it to their portfolios but neither will create the type of large-scale institutional investment that would have been required with a listing in the S&P.
Surprised you're not in a code freeze for this event although it sounds like effectively you are.
SB |
A code freeze? | |
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:50 - Jun 12 with 1267 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
Some of the US Indexes changed their rules to allow new IPOs to be added to the Index immediately. Previously there was a minimum 1 year wait due to volatility.
Which means all of the Tracker Funds HAVE TO buy in until they achieve correct weighting. And many pensions have "Y percentage of total fund to track Index" rules in place as well, so they will have to buy in.
So a company which is totally based on hype/brand value/possible future potential and which makes beyond stratospheric losses will see it's price go on an inevitable upward trajectory.
So those who bought in, and cash out, will almost certainly make money.
But they will also be making Elon Musk even more wealthy and powerful.
Which is why I didn't invest.
A Publicly Listed Company now gets to choose who wins the Ukraine war, by turning Starlink on or off for either side.
What a time to be alive! |  | | |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:53 - Jun 12 with 1202 views | StokieBlue |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:49 - Jun 12 by bluelagos |
A code freeze? |
A period of time when no updates to the code base are allowed because of a large and external event such as this largest ever IPO.
It's to ensure bugs aren't added at the worst possible time.
SB [Post edited 12 Jun 8:53]
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| Avatar - M101 - Pinwheel Galaxy |
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:54 - Jun 12 with 1187 views | DanTheMan |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:48 - Jun 12 by StokieBlue |
It's not going to be listed on the FTSE 100, it's going onto the FTSE Russell which is a large US index. There shouldn't be too much global exposure to that one.
Of course you're right to say both the Nasdaq and Russell will create some exposure as will funds adding it to their portfolios but neither will create the type of large-scale institutional investment that would have been required with a listing in the S&P.
Surprised you're not in a code freeze for this event although it sounds like effectively you are.
SB |
We are unfortunately. Personally think code freezes are mostly nonsense are "hotfixes" are still going out so all we're doing is batching up dangerous changes for next week. We've basically been in a code freeze now for well over a week due to Binance and other clients going live as well.
But all the people I need to review code are unfortunately "too busy" to look at a few lines of code. Such is the way of Big Silicon Valley Fintech... I miss my UK one. | |
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:54 - Jun 12 with 1180 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Apparently it's set to go up by about 1/3 today. Seems to me that trading just turns people into c#nts really if you end up rewarding the likes of child porn enabling, neo fascist Musk because, "well, what can you do!" |  |
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:59 - Jun 12 with 1156 views | bluelagos |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:54 - Jun 12 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Apparently it's set to go up by about 1/3 today. Seems to me that trading just turns people into c#nts really if you end up rewarding the likes of child porn enabling, neo fascist Musk because, "well, what can you do!" |
Some people see football clubs as things to trade... | |
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 09:21 - Jun 12 with 1083 views | MVBlue |
While I am a follower of SpaceX, I think this is an early play to claw money back. In the grand scheme of Billionaires culling the middle class, at its core it might be a way to grab pension investment money that the pension managers put in and hand it back to the Twitter takeover investors. They say that Musk is likely to pay back his Twitter investors as a priority and that of course xAI component of Twitter is in the Spacex company as part of this.
Previously I had believed that the hype on the SpaceX Heavy Falcon rocket and StarLink has made SpaceX the company of the future but now I believe the hype train is working to grab pension money. If you look at UK pension firms such as Legal and General or the Universities Superannuation Scheme both of which I have previously looked through they are big in Tesla. So I am worried we are being setup by Musk somewhat. [Post edited 12 Jun 9:22]
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 09:23 - Jun 12 with 1065 views | Oldsmoker |
It's 4 times oversubscribed. That means there's demand for 4 times the shares that are on offer. There's so much money sloshing around because of quantative easing and tax cuts that it needs to be invested somewhere.
I would have thought that oil companies should be the goto investment right now as 80% of oil doesn't go through the strait of Hormuz and is priced at a premium.
The smart money is relying on the hype and hoping that they can dump while others still want to buy.
I expect in 6 months time the share price will be below the offer price of $135. |  |
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 09:24 - Jun 12 with 1063 views | bsw72 |
To put it simply, investors are not buying 2025, they are buying 2040.
Morgan Stanley has shared projections with suggesting revenue could reach approximately $160 billion by 2028, with Goldman Sachs forecasting over $470 billion by 2030, and potentially $3.4 trillion by 2040 (adjusted EBITDA exceeding $2.7 trillion). Valuation multiples on high-growth businesses are driven by terminal value, not near-term earnings.
While it is an equity play, it actually needs to be thought about more like a bond, with an embedded option on a brand new market. Wjhile the coupon (earnings) is negative the option (first mover dominance in orbital infrstructure and stellite internet) could potentially be worht many multiples of the underlying value.
Basically the market is pricing the option and not the coupon - but it *is* a $1.7Tn gamble. |  | | |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 09:45 - Jun 12 with 944 views | Guthrum |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 09:24 - Jun 12 by bsw72 |
To put it simply, investors are not buying 2025, they are buying 2040.
Morgan Stanley has shared projections with suggesting revenue could reach approximately $160 billion by 2028, with Goldman Sachs forecasting over $470 billion by 2030, and potentially $3.4 trillion by 2040 (adjusted EBITDA exceeding $2.7 trillion). Valuation multiples on high-growth businesses are driven by terminal value, not near-term earnings.
While it is an equity play, it actually needs to be thought about more like a bond, with an embedded option on a brand new market. Wjhile the coupon (earnings) is negative the option (first mover dominance in orbital infrstructure and stellite internet) could potentially be worht many multiples of the underlying value.
Basically the market is pricing the option and not the coupon - but it *is* a $1.7Tn gamble. |
Which is fine, so long as everything continues heading on the present track. However, as with Tesla and electric cars, competition may erode market dominance. Also not impossible that Musk bankrupts SpaceX trying to fix Starship, with jaunts to Mars, etc |  |
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 09:56 - Jun 12 with 916 views | StokieBlue |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 09:45 - Jun 12 by Guthrum |
Which is fine, so long as everything continues heading on the present track. However, as with Tesla and electric cars, competition may erode market dominance. Also not impossible that Musk bankrupts SpaceX trying to fix Starship, with jaunts to Mars, etc |
Tesla is positioning itself to barely be a car maker anymore, it's moving heavily into humanoid robot development and construction and will be absorbed into SpaceX.
Starship is an issue, they are spending a lot and need to get it working but they have form in producing excellent rockets so they should sort that out eventually and if they do that will be the money maker.
If you're a conspiracy theorist you could say all Musk's companies are designed to move to Mars:
- SpaceX - Rockets, AI, Communications
- Tesla - Robots (building in different atmospheres), batteries, electric motor tech
- Boring Company - drilling under the surface to protect from radiation
- Neuralink - Uploading to robots (a long way off!) or brain controlled robots
Whether that happens we will have to wait and see. It's still a long way off at the moment.
SB | |
| Avatar - M101 - Pinwheel Galaxy |
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 10:03 - Jun 12 with 894 views | BaaBaaBlue |
For me, it's a get in early and get out quickly, probably make a little profit. Or, get in early for a long hold.. or, wait until it drops heavily and then play the long game.. which is basically trading in a nutshell! 🤔 | | | |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 10:49 - Jun 12 with 744 views | Guthrum |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 09:56 - Jun 12 by StokieBlue |
Tesla is positioning itself to barely be a car maker anymore, it's moving heavily into humanoid robot development and construction and will be absorbed into SpaceX.
Starship is an issue, they are spending a lot and need to get it working but they have form in producing excellent rockets so they should sort that out eventually and if they do that will be the money maker.
If you're a conspiracy theorist you could say all Musk's companies are designed to move to Mars:
- SpaceX - Rockets, AI, Communications
- Tesla - Robots (building in different atmospheres), batteries, electric motor tech
- Boring Company - drilling under the surface to protect from radiation
- Neuralink - Uploading to robots (a long way off!) or brain controlled robots
Whether that happens we will have to wait and see. It's still a long way off at the moment.
SB |
Not sure you need to be a conspiracy theorist to think that! | |
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 11:01 - Jun 12 with 718 views | giant_stow |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 10:49 - Jun 12 by Guthrum |
Not sure you need to be a conspiracy theorist to think that! |
Fascinating stuff - thanks all |  |
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| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 08:25 - Jun 13 with 474 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
The guy is a cult, the price of Tesla is just bonkers versus the assets and profit generated. All driven by US kids trading in their bedroom. I’ll get exposure to SpaceX but it will be highly diluted. NASA is increasingly using SpaceX to lower their own operational costs, and clearly there’s a huge market for launch of commercial equipment. To be honest Musks ownership of Starlink is the most worrying… | | | |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 10:37 - Jun 13 with 359 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Any finance bods got a view on this? on 10:03 - Jun 12 by BaaBaaBlue |
For me, it's a get in early and get out quickly, probably make a little profit. Or, get in early for a long hold.. or, wait until it drops heavily and then play the long game.. which is basically trading in a nutshell! 🤔 |
....or is it just gaming madness? | |
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