| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary 16:45 - Jul 6 with 12256 views | J2BLUE |
Being shown Wednesday at 9pm. For anyone who may not have seen anything about it.
|  | | |  |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 15:48 - Jul 8 with 1276 views | lowhouseblue |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 15:25 - Jul 8 by nrb1985 |
It depends on what measure you use - most industry people will look at average hourly earnings minus CPI.
I don’t believe you’re going to find anybody on this board who feels 5.12% better off in the last 6 years… |
ok, average weekly earnings deflated by cpi grew a total of 5.01% between jan 2020 and apr 2026. not a big difference - and still a very long way of -1.7%pa which is plain wrong.
"who feels 5.12% better off in the last 6 years" but that's what the ons data shows. i fear some people have constructed a story about uk inequality and real wages etc which is pretty impervious to evidence.
clearly, the same inflation rate isn't necessarily right for everyone, but if you look at the household cost indicies by income decile the variation isn't huge. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
| |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 15:57 - Jul 8 with 1246 views | _CliveBaker_ |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 12:05 - Jul 7 by nrb1985 |
Not stupid on the surface because you could reasonably expect a middle of the road multi asset class portfolio (cash, bonds, stocks etc) to grow over 65 years at ~7-8% pa in GBP.
So You'd have a lump sum at retirement of something like £800k and then you're on your own regardless of how long you live - which is a benefit to the state if you think everyone will continue to live longer.
The issue is, what income you can then generate from that lump sum will be highly dependent on where interest rates and inflation are at the time you retire - so you can end up feasibly with less income than you get now from the state pension. Noting of course the state pension is inflation protected.
Whether it makes financial sense I have no idea as I don't know what birth rates are projected to be nor how much the state pension costs us now.
But it doesn't appear silly at first glance. [Post edited 7 Jul 12:12]
|
Issue being your 7% return p/a has to be real returns rather than nominal ones.
Otherwise your £800k would have the purchasing power of a fraction of that, more like £220k in today's money assuming an average rate of inflation of 2% over the same period. |  | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 16:00 - Jul 8 with 1232 views | nrb1985 |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 15:48 - Jul 8 by lowhouseblue |
ok, average weekly earnings deflated by cpi grew a total of 5.01% between jan 2020 and apr 2026. not a big difference - and still a very long way of -1.7%pa which is plain wrong.
"who feels 5.12% better off in the last 6 years" but that's what the ons data shows. i fear some people have constructed a story about uk inequality and real wages etc which is pretty impervious to evidence.
clearly, the same inflation rate isn't necessarily right for everyone, but if you look at the household cost indicies by income decile the variation isn't huge. |
Can you provide me with a link to those figures? And their methodology.
I’m literally looking my Bloomberg screen now showing me the figures I quoted. Maybe the ONS are using core CPI which discounts more volatile items like food and energy - which is stupid because everyone still has to pay for those things even if they’re volatile.
Let’s imagine you’re right though for a second - crudely that works out at wages outpacing inflation by 0.8% pa.
Financial assets have beaten inflation in the same time by almost 10% pa. So you still end up in the same place it’s just that wages have stagnated rather than declined in real terms.
Meanwhile asset price performance remains the same. [Post edited 8 Jul 16:03]
|  | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 16:02 - Jul 8 with 1215 views | nrb1985 |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 15:57 - Jul 8 by _CliveBaker_ |
Issue being your 7% return p/a has to be real returns rather than nominal ones.
Otherwise your £800k would have the purchasing power of a fraction of that, more like £220k in today's money assuming an average rate of inflation of 2% over the same period. |
Yes I agree.
That’s what I meant by referencing the fact the state pension is inflation protected.
Other issue would be - what’s to stop people spending it on Ferraris and Coke?! | | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 16:07 - Jul 8 with 1194 views | _CliveBaker_ |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 16:02 - Jul 8 by nrb1985 |
Yes I agree.
That’s what I meant by referencing the fact the state pension is inflation protected.
Other issue would be - what’s to stop people spending it on Ferraris and Coke?! |
Guess you can sleep in the Ferrari, technically. | | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 16:17 - Jul 8 with 1166 views | nrb1985 |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 16:00 - Jul 8 by nrb1985 |
Can you provide me with a link to those figures? And their methodology.
I’m literally looking my Bloomberg screen now showing me the figures I quoted. Maybe the ONS are using core CPI which discounts more volatile items like food and energy - which is stupid because everyone still has to pay for those things even if they’re volatile.
Let’s imagine you’re right though for a second - crudely that works out at wages outpacing inflation by 0.8% pa.
Financial assets have beaten inflation in the same time by almost 10% pa. So you still end up in the same place it’s just that wages have stagnated rather than declined in real terms.
Meanwhile asset price performance remains the same. [Post edited 8 Jul 16:03]
|
Ah ok, my bad, I’ve just taken a simple 5yr average, they’re measuring each quarter I think.
Apologies.
The point still remains though. [Post edited 8 Jul 16:17]
| | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 16:18 - Jul 8 with 1161 views | nrb1985 |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 16:07 - Jul 8 by _CliveBaker_ |
Guess you can sleep in the Ferrari, technically. |
Good point.
They make a SUV now too so can fit the grandkids in as well.
Problem solved. | | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 16:19 - Jul 8 with 1157 views | lowhouseblue |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 16:00 - Jul 8 by nrb1985 |
Can you provide me with a link to those figures? And their methodology.
I’m literally looking my Bloomberg screen now showing me the figures I quoted. Maybe the ONS are using core CPI which discounts more volatile items like food and energy - which is stupid because everyone still has to pay for those things even if they’re volatile.
Let’s imagine you’re right though for a second - crudely that works out at wages outpacing inflation by 0.8% pa.
Financial assets have beaten inflation in the same time by almost 10% pa. So you still end up in the same place it’s just that wages have stagnated rather than declined in real terms.
Meanwhile asset price performance remains the same. [Post edited 8 Jul 16:03]
|
it's this dataset (sheet 13):
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employm
deflated with the cpi index numbers from here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employm
so nominal weekly earnings go from £546 in jan 2020 to £753 in apr 2026 (up 37.9%). over the same period the cpi index goes from 108.2 to 142.1 (up 31.3%). 1.379 / 1.313 = 1.0501 = real rise of 5.01%. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 16:32 - Jul 8 with 1125 views | lowhouseblue |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 16:17 - Jul 8 by nrb1985 |
Ah ok, my bad, I’ve just taken a simple 5yr average, they’re measuring each quarter I think.
Apologies.
The point still remains though. [Post edited 8 Jul 16:17]
|
i think they key point is that +0.8% per annum is very different form -1.7% per annum. on average we're now 5% better off in real terms since jan 2020 rather than being 10% worse off. [Post edited 8 Jul 16:47]
| |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
| |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 18:43 - Jul 8 with 961 views | grow_our_own |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 17:28 - Jul 8 by DJR |
A few observations.
1. According to Wikipedia, Richard Murphy (mentioned earlier) was born and brought up in Ipswich.
2. In the current climate, what would prevent the money raised by a wealth tax from merely going to fill the huge blackhole in defence spending, when I would challenge whether all the increased spending is necessary?
3. If the aim is to raise money from wealthy individuals, why limit it to the top 1%?
4. The IFS has opined on a wealth tax, and thinks that increases in other existing taxes taxes relating to wealth would be far preferable.
https://ifs.org.uk/articles/we
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.co
https://ifs.org.uk/sites/defau
5. Gary Stevenson has only studied economics, not practised it in business or academia.
6. If it's a toss up between him and the IFS, I'll back the latter. 
7. Richard Murphy has also been critical of some of the things that Stevenson has said.
https://www.taxresearch.org.uk
8. Labour shot themselves in the foot by pledging not to increase income tax, national insurance or VAT. [Post edited 8 Jul 17:50]
|
Agree with most of that, but you're implying that defence spending is unnecessary when, by reliable accounts, Russia will imminently attack a second European country: Poland. [Post edited 8 Jul 18:51]
| | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:17 - Jul 8 with 903 views | DJR |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 18:34 - Jul 8 by nrb1985 |
Your point 5 is correct and is annoying.
Keeps saying he’s an economist - he’s really not.
He’s no more an economist than someone who studied medicine and now does something completely different is a doctor. |
I studied Economic and Public Affairs at O-level.
Maybe I can call myself an economist too. |  | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:23 - Jul 8 with 888 views | Bugs |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:17 - Jul 8 by DJR |
I studied Economic and Public Affairs at O-level.
Maybe I can call myself an economist too. |
The irony is 'real' economists are notoriously poor at predicting the future. |  | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:27 - Jul 8 with 880 views | DJR |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 18:43 - Jul 8 by grow_our_own |
Agree with most of that, but you're implying that defence spending is unnecessary when, by reliable accounts, Russia will imminently attack a second European country: Poland. [Post edited 8 Jul 18:51]
|
I am not wholly convinced, especially given Russia has enough on its hands in Ukraine and Article 5 is lurking in the background.
As it is, the EU's total defence spending in 2024 exceeded China’s by about one-and-a-half times, and was more than three times as high as Russia’s military budget: and that doesn't include the UK.
And a lot of the proposed increase is down to figures which Trump just picks out of the air, and is not necessarily based on need. I have a feeling 5% of GDP is the ultimate figure, but that is more than the US's figure and the US has much more of the World role than the UK and the rest of Europe. [Post edited 8 Jul 19:41]
| | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:33 - Jul 8 with 859 views | DJR |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:23 - Jul 8 by Bugs |
The irony is 'real' economists are notoriously poor at predicting the future. |
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable
J K Galbraith. | | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:35 - Jul 8 with 848 views | nrb1985 |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:23 - Jul 8 by Bugs |
The irony is 'real' economists are notoriously poor at predicting the future. |
Are they?!
Like the ones who said Brexit would be a disaster? | | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:38 - Jul 8 with 833 views | DJR |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:35 - Jul 8 by nrb1985 |
Are they?!
Like the ones who said Brexit would be a disaster? |
I think that was a slam dunk, even for economists. | | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:43 - Jul 8 with 818 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:23 - Jul 8 by Bugs |
The irony is 'real' economists are notoriously poor at predicting the future. |
“predicting the future”
I’ve not seen many make that claim - perhaps you’d be better off reading the horoscopes or visiting a clairvoyant…
If anyone was able to predict the future they wouldn’t need to be working, they’d be enjoying their lottery winnings. They can accurately forecast the impact of events e.g the economic impact of Brexit was pretty damn close. One could always point to the dubious forecasts made in regards to COVID, and the ever changing climate change predictions etc. | | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:49 - Jul 8 with 802 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:38 - Jul 8 by DJR |
I think that was a slam dunk, even for economists. |
They are literally crucial for our business planning, much better value than overpaid lawyers 😊 | | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:59 - Jul 8 with 780 views | nrb1985 |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:48 - Jul 8 by itfcjoe |
1 - He's a big ITFC fan too |
If you see him at FPR in the not too distant future, please do ask him how that inevitable and imminent stock market collapse he told us all with such conviction was definitely coming last summer went.
Apparently millennials like me don’t understand how things work as we lack experience.
So it’s good that we’ve got people like Dickie around to tell us where we’re all going wrong. | | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 20:50 - Jul 8 with 718 views | DJR |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 19:48 - Jul 8 by itfcjoe |
1 - He's a big ITFC fan too |
I didn't know that.
This is a good article from him which asks what is truth and which some on TWTD ought to take on board before they abuse people for the views they hold. It's something I've tried to articulate on here before, but I think this does it very well.
https://www.taxresearch.org.uk
It starts off thus.
"Most of what passes for political certainty is not fact at all: it is belief, shaped by the stories we inherit, the media we consume, and the identities we hold. Because beliefs feel like facts to those who hold them, political disagreement will never be resolved by simply asserting the correct answer; it requires first understanding the narratives that formed the opposing view. A politics of care, therefore, demands intellectual humility, not dogmatic certainty, and that means engaging seriously with views we find uncomfortable rather than dismissing them."
And it includes the following.
"Step 3 — The Ipswich Town test — The analogy is deliberate: Richard knows his belief that Ipswich Town is the best football club in England is not factually true, yet he holds it because it is part of his identity. This is what most political conviction actually looks like; sincere, felt as truth, and resistant to counter-evidence precisely because it is not really about evidence." [Post edited 8 Jul 21:15]
| | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 21:35 - Jul 8 with 674 views | nrb1985 |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 20:50 - Jul 8 by DJR |
I didn't know that.
This is a good article from him which asks what is truth and which some on TWTD ought to take on board before they abuse people for the views they hold. It's something I've tried to articulate on here before, but I think this does it very well.
https://www.taxresearch.org.uk
It starts off thus.
"Most of what passes for political certainty is not fact at all: it is belief, shaped by the stories we inherit, the media we consume, and the identities we hold. Because beliefs feel like facts to those who hold them, political disagreement will never be resolved by simply asserting the correct answer; it requires first understanding the narratives that formed the opposing view. A politics of care, therefore, demands intellectual humility, not dogmatic certainty, and that means engaging seriously with views we find uncomfortable rather than dismissing them."
And it includes the following.
"Step 3 — The Ipswich Town test — The analogy is deliberate: Richard knows his belief that Ipswich Town is the best football club in England is not factually true, yet he holds it because it is part of his identity. This is what most political conviction actually looks like; sincere, felt as truth, and resistant to counter-evidence precisely because it is not really about evidence." [Post edited 8 Jul 21:15]
|
Having had this misfortune of watching a number of his videos, humility and the avoidance of dogmatic certainty really aren’t what comes to mind.
See my above post where there was an “inevitable” crash coming which market participants like me were too dumb and/or young to see.
I understand entirely why people feel the way they do and have certain grievances. But I loathe those who prey on that vulnerability to further their own aims. | | | |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 22:59 - Jul 8 with 577 views | reusersfreekicks |
| Gary Stevenson's channel 4 documentary on 14:39 - Jul 8 by nrb1985 |
"You, and your paymasters, don't want us to talk about wealth inequality"
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.
Read the thread you absolute Muppet. I've pointed out several times there is growing wealth inequality and pushed back on those who said there isn't!!!
You're coming across as moron mate. [Post edited 8 Jul 14:40]
|
Lowhouse tells us all that inequality is not growing in the UK.
Who is correct |  | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
