| The Path to Survival 14:04 - Oct 12 with 1183 views | Samuelowen88 |
Been having a look at past seasons survival points, taken as 18th (or 20th) + 1pt.
If you look at the history of the PL (When football was invented):
Average Survival Points: 37 (36.6)
PPG: 0.97 (0.96)
Last 10 years:
Average Survival Points: 34 (33.2)
PPG: 0.89 (0.87)
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Looking slightly deeper and using all 34 seasons.
36 Pts = 50% Survival (0.95 PPG)
39 Pts = 75% Survival (1.03 PPG)
41 Pts = 90% Survival (1.08 PPG)
46 Pts = 97% Survival (1.21 PPG) * Survival every year other than 02/93
50 Pts = 100% Survival (1.32 PPG) *50pts was the required points the 92/93 season and an outlier
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Last 10 Seasons only
35 Points = 80% Survival (0.92 PPG) *35 is also the most common survival Pts 4 the last 10 seasons
36 Points = 90% Survival (0.95 PPG)
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This season (Data skew due to low number of games)
So far we are 9pts from 6 = (1.5PPG) this would see us survive every time if this trend continues.
Spurs currently 18th on 3 pts from 6. Would give them 19 Points at the end of the season, so 20pts for survival at 0.53 PPG (a new low by a far margin, previous low was 26 (24/25))
Not sure what my point is, but it was an interesting way to while away my lunch.
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| The Path to Survival on 14:13 - Oct 12 with 1108 views | Guthrum |
Not only was 1992-93 an outlier, but in that and the subsequent two seasons there were 22 teams in the division, thus four more games to accumulate points.
From 1995-96 on, the highest points totals in 18th place were 42 (in 2002-03), 40 (twice: 1996-97, 1997-98) and 39 (2010-11, 2025-26). |  |
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| The Path to Survival on 14:44 - Oct 12 with 943 views | BlueandTruesince82 |
I think your point is that we have 1/4 of the points we need in Oct. I can remember the days when sides in a relegation scrap used to talk about the magic 40 for survival but reality in recent seasons in 36 to 38 is where you want to be.
I think Spurs will come good, maybe not good but I don't think they will go down much as I would love it.
I also think Fulham have issues, they should have the players to get out of it but I'm not sure they have the manager. Lets face it having the calibre of Real Madrids dressing room means even if you are quite tactically inept, you should be beat most other teams, most of the time. He's never been in a relegation scrap as a manager and I think he wont last the season, lets hope they stick with him for long enough where any confidence is shot and its too late.
If we assume (perhaps wrongly, i am yet to be convinced that any saction will occur this season esp given they will throw lawyers at it) that the cheats are punished properly, then that leaves us a really good shot at survival.
Palace, Forest, Bournemouth all look like they could have a difficult season, plus Sunderland yet to find their feet this year and Cov. Some of them will get their act together of course but the more teams struggling the better.
Then there is Hull who are either going to have a fairy tale season or drop like a stone......
All to playfor but we're 1/4 of a way there and livin on a prayer in Oct. Brilliant stuff. |  |
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| The Path to Survival on 18:27 - Oct 12 with 496 views | Blue_Heath |
| The Path to Survival on 14:44 - Oct 12 by BlueandTruesince82 |
I think your point is that we have 1/4 of the points we need in Oct. I can remember the days when sides in a relegation scrap used to talk about the magic 40 for survival but reality in recent seasons in 36 to 38 is where you want to be.
I think Spurs will come good, maybe not good but I don't think they will go down much as I would love it.
I also think Fulham have issues, they should have the players to get out of it but I'm not sure they have the manager. Lets face it having the calibre of Real Madrids dressing room means even if you are quite tactically inept, you should be beat most other teams, most of the time. He's never been in a relegation scrap as a manager and I think he wont last the season, lets hope they stick with him for long enough where any confidence is shot and its too late.
If we assume (perhaps wrongly, i am yet to be convinced that any saction will occur this season esp given they will throw lawyers at it) that the cheats are punished properly, then that leaves us a really good shot at survival.
Palace, Forest, Bournemouth all look like they could have a difficult season, plus Sunderland yet to find their feet this year and Cov. Some of them will get their act together of course but the more teams struggling the better.
Then there is Hull who are either going to have a fairy tale season or drop like a stone......
All to playfor but we're 1/4 of a way there and livin on a prayer in Oct. Brilliant stuff. |
Yes recently 36-38 would be enough, I feel this year that total will be higher though.
We've won half our games and will be in bottom half of table if the geordies get at least a point tonight. That's how tough it is. |  |
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| The Path to Survival on 19:34 - Oct 12 with 317 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| The Path to Survival on 18:27 - Oct 12 by Blue_Heath |
Yes recently 36-38 would be enough, I feel this year that total will be higher though.
We've won half our games and will be in bottom half of table if the geordies get at least a point tonight. That's how tough it is. |
” We've won half our games and will be in bottom half of table if the geordies get at least a point tonight. That's how tough it is.”
It’s not really showing signs of being a tough outlier yet. Both Claude and ChatGPT agree that a team with 9pts after 6 games would be between 8th and 12th. Couldn’t pull states for every year with a quick check, but these did come back :
2017–18 Huddersfield, Burnley, Newcastle 8th–10th
2020–21 Chelsea, Arsenal 12th–13th
2021–22 Brentford, Arsenal, Tottenham 9th–11th
2022–23 Liverpool, Brentford 7th–8th
2023–24 Newcastle, Man Utd 8th–9th
2024–25 Brighton, Nottingham Forest 9th–10th
10th or 11th sounds about par. [Post edited 12 Oct 19:47]
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| The Path to Survival on 19:43 - Oct 12 with 281 views | syntaxerror |
| The Path to Survival on 19:34 - Oct 12 by SuffolkPunchFC |
” We've won half our games and will be in bottom half of table if the geordies get at least a point tonight. That's how tough it is.”
It’s not really showing signs of being a tough outlier yet. Both Claude and ChatGPT agree that a team with 9pts after 6 games would be between 8th and 12th. Couldn’t pull states for every year with a quick check, but these did come back :
2017–18 Huddersfield, Burnley, Newcastle 8th–10th
2020–21 Chelsea, Arsenal 12th–13th
2021–22 Brentford, Arsenal, Tottenham 9th–11th
2022–23 Liverpool, Brentford 7th–8th
2023–24 Newcastle, Man Utd 8th–9th
2024–25 Brighton, Nottingham Forest 9th–10th
10th or 11th sounds about par. [Post edited 12 Oct 19:47]
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I would still snap your hand off for 17th. |  | | |
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