| My route to survival if it's 40 points 07:46 - Aug 11 with 2430 views | Blue_Heath |
What do we think then guys is the below achievable? I have placed (W) and (D) next to games where I think we'll get points.
Question is will 40 points be enough?
Sat 22 Aug 15:00 Sunderland H (W)
Sun 30 Aug 16:30 Manchester United A
3 points
Fri 4 Sep 20:00 Liverpool H
Sat 12 Sep 15:00 Crystal Palace A (D)
Sat 19 Sep 15:00 Everton A
4points
Sat 10 Oct 15:00 Fulham H (W)
Sat 17 Oct 15:00 Manchester City A
Sat 24 Oct 15:00 Nottingham Forest H
Sat 31 Oct 15:00 Hull City A (D)
8 points
Sat 7 Nov 15:00 AFC Bournemouth H (W)
Sat 21 Nov 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur A
Sat 28 Nov 15:00 Aston Villa H (D)
12 points
Wed 2 Dec 20:00 Coventry City A (D)
Sat 5 Dec 15:00 Leeds United A
Sat 12 Dec 15:00 Newcastle United H (W)
Sat 19 Dec 15:00 Brighton and Hove Albion A
Sat 26 Dec 15:00 Brentford H (W)
Wed 30 Dec 20:00 Chelsea H (D)
20 points
Sat 2 Jan 15:00 Arsenal A
Wed 6 Jan 20:00 Coventry City H (W)
Sat 16 Jan 15:00 AFC Bournemouth A (D)
Sat 23 Jan 15:00 Hull City H (W)
Sat 30 Jan 15:00 Aston Villa A
27 points
Sat 6 Feb 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur H (D)
Wed 10 Feb 20:00 Arsenal H
Sat 20 Feb 15:00 Chelsea A
Sat 27 Feb 15:00 Brighton and Hove Albion H (D)
29 points
Wed 3 Mar 20:00 Brentford A (D)
Sat 13 Mar 15:00 Liverpool A
Sat 20 Mar 15:00 Crystal Palace H (W)
33 points
Sat 10 Apr 15:00 Sunderland A (D)
Sat 17 Apr 15:00 Manchester United H
Sat 24 Apr 15:00 Newcastle United A
34 points
Sat 1 May 15:00 Leeds United H
Sat 8 May 15:00 Fulham A (W)
Sat 15 May 15:00 Manchester City H
Sun 23 May 15:00 Nottingham Forest A
Sun 30 May 16:00 Everton H (W)
40 points
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| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 09:53 - Aug 11 | Guthrum |
I don't think it's a viable strategy to target specific games. Too much risk of a mistake or chance decision ruining the whole edifice. Plus it's working on a calculation which may not be accurate come the end of the season. Thirdly, if we are downgrading some matches, there is the danger of goal difference getting out of hand - it's going to be hard enogh to keep it within reason already.
A better route to survival would be tactical. Primarily, being very tight in defence. Then working upon fast, incisive attacking followed by taking our opportunities in front of goal. It should give us the best possible chance against the (relatively) weaker teams and also the possibility of surprising the stronger ones (as we did at Chelsea and nearly pulled off against Arsenal and ManU last time). |  |
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| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 10:16 - Aug 11 | londonblue791 |
All I will say is we need to pick up more than 2 points out of an available 12 (24/25 against Leicester and Southampton) against the new comers Coventry and Hull.
We really should be taking 12 points of them based on the fact we comfortably did it last season. |  | | |
| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 10:23 - Aug 11 | Blue_Heath |
| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 09:53 - Aug 11 by Guthrum |
I don't think it's a viable strategy to target specific games. Too much risk of a mistake or chance decision ruining the whole edifice. Plus it's working on a calculation which may not be accurate come the end of the season. Thirdly, if we are downgrading some matches, there is the danger of goal difference getting out of hand - it's going to be hard enogh to keep it within reason already.
A better route to survival would be tactical. Primarily, being very tight in defence. Then working upon fast, incisive attacking followed by taking our opportunities in front of goal. It should give us the best possible chance against the (relatively) weaker teams and also the possibility of surprising the stronger ones (as we did at Chelsea and nearly pulled off against Arsenal and ManU last time). |
I agree and wasn't suggesting that just plotting where we are most likely to get results, in practice we'll probably lose to Hull but beat Chelsea.
40 points with a few more signings and a good start is doable but doubtless we'll be relying on established teams to have poor seasons too to stay up. | |
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| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 10:24 - Aug 11 | Blue_Heath |
| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 10:16 - Aug 11 by londonblue791 |
All I will say is we need to pick up more than 2 points out of an available 12 (24/25 against Leicester and Southampton) against the new comers Coventry and Hull.
We really should be taking 12 points of them based on the fact we comfortably did it last season. |
Yes beating the teams around you is huge if we can take that 12 not only is it a huge chunk of points but also means we then need to only finish above one other club. | |
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| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 10:47 - Aug 11 | PrideOfTheEast |
| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 10:16 - Aug 11 by londonblue791 |
All I will say is we need to pick up more than 2 points out of an available 12 (24/25 against Leicester and Southampton) against the new comers Coventry and Hull.
We really should be taking 12 points of them based on the fact we comfortably did it last season. |
Yep that’s the way I’d be thinking about it.
40 looks hard but 12 points there means say 25 to 30 from the remaining 34 games. If we can get a win against Sunderland, Fulham, Leeds, Palace, Everton and Newcastle that would probably be enough plus draws and perhaps one unexpected win against a top side. I think a result on the opening day is big but so is a result against either Palace or Everton early on. | | | |
| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 11:02 - Aug 11 | Guthrum |
| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 10:23 - Aug 11 by Blue_Heath |
I agree and wasn't suggesting that just plotting where we are most likely to get results, in practice we'll probably lose to Hull but beat Chelsea.
40 points with a few more signings and a good start is doable but doubtless we'll be relying on established teams to have poor seasons too to stay up. |
For me, it's very difficult to do that at this stage. We don't know the fully-assembled squads - ours or others - and only have the vaguest idea of what the style and effectiveness of our play is going to be (one friendly against a Spanish side).
Makes it hard to judge our relative strength. I would hope we are putting together something capable of finishing 13th to 15th, to allow for falling a bit short, not one scraping 17th at best. Sunderland has shown the possibility of doing even better than that. Many fans and pundits, however, have already written off our chances.
I like our defensive setup, an area we were notably weak last time and cost us greatly. But the attack needs finishing touches. Plus any further upgrades would all help.
But until we have tested ourselves against genuinely peer opponents, in full competition, it's really hard to gauge where we actually are. | |
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| Good analysis; do agree with most… but by end of October on 11:16 - Aug 11 | unstableblue |
… we want more than 8 points
I think clubs that survive build momentum early… it’s not something you pick up. Start well so you’ve broken the back of the points tally.
To get to 40 points you need 1.05 PPG.
We’d be at 0.88 at end of October, so already on back foot.
I’d like to see us on 11 points - a win against Hull away and a draw against Forest at home or Everton away.
Now I know results won’t match exactly you or mine predictions. They’ll be swings and round abouts and we may get a shock win against a big club.
But 8 for me is too low at the end of October with the games we have and the momentum we need. |  |
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| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 11:20 - Aug 11 | unstableblue |
| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 09:53 - Aug 11 by Guthrum |
I don't think it's a viable strategy to target specific games. Too much risk of a mistake or chance decision ruining the whole edifice. Plus it's working on a calculation which may not be accurate come the end of the season. Thirdly, if we are downgrading some matches, there is the danger of goal difference getting out of hand - it's going to be hard enogh to keep it within reason already.
A better route to survival would be tactical. Primarily, being very tight in defence. Then working upon fast, incisive attacking followed by taking our opportunities in front of goal. It should give us the best possible chance against the (relatively) weaker teams and also the possibility of surprising the stronger ones (as we did at Chelsea and nearly pulled off against Arsenal and ManU last time). |
Agree with the tactical points Guthers
And of course you can’t predict exact points tallies as the fixtures wrack up
BUT - I do think you need a points ‘run rate’ and you need for me to get points on the board and momentum early.
12 points by the end of October (as per my other reply) - would put us in a good position.
5, 6, 7 even 8 points and I think we’d be moving into catch up. | |
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| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 11:21 - Aug 11 | Swansea_Blue |
God knows. I’ll predict a slow start and then we’ll have 2 or 3 little mini-runs with a few grim times in between. I’m not overly confident, as although we’re picking up a few top level players they’re tending to be cast offs or not particularly impactful players. I’m not complaining, as I wasn’t expecting Rodri, but we’ll still be seriously out-gunned by most teams even with our new players.
But you never know… |  |
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| We had 4?points after matchweek 9 on 11:28 - Aug 11 | unstableblue |
| Good analysis; do agree with most… but by end of October on 11:16 - Aug 11 by unstableblue |
… we want more than 8 points
I think clubs that survive build momentum early… it’s not something you pick up. Start well so you’ve broken the back of the points tally.
To get to 40 points you need 1.05 PPG.
We’d be at 0.88 at end of October, so already on back foot.
I’d like to see us on 11 points - a win against Hull away and a draw against Forest at home or Everton away.
Now I know results won’t match exactly you or mine predictions. They’ll be swings and round abouts and we may get a shock win against a big club.
But 8 for me is too low at the end of October with the games we have and the momentum we need. |
Last premier league campaign
Way too low. Should have been at least 6 with Villa and Fulham home performances
West Ham away perhaps pushing to 9?!
We didn’t get to 8 points till after matchweek 11
Then just stagnated on 9 points till matchweek 16
Get to ten in ten games!! This season and we’ll have a chance. Go early. | |
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| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 11:29 - Aug 11 | unstableblue |
| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 11:21 - Aug 11 by Swansea_Blue |
God knows. I’ll predict a slow start and then we’ll have 2 or 3 little mini-runs with a few grim times in between. I’m not overly confident, as although we’re picking up a few top level players they’re tending to be cast offs or not particularly impactful players. I’m not complaining, as I wasn’t expecting Rodri, but we’ll still be seriously out-gunned by most teams even with our new players.
But you never know… |
If we can get a strong striker and number 8 and/10, plus a strong right back well stand a chance.
We’ll have to start strongly | |
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| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 11:29 - Aug 11 | Blue_Heath |
| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 10:47 - Aug 11 by PrideOfTheEast |
Yep that’s the way I’d be thinking about it.
40 looks hard but 12 points there means say 25 to 30 from the remaining 34 games. If we can get a win against Sunderland, Fulham, Leeds, Palace, Everton and Newcastle that would probably be enough plus draws and perhaps one unexpected win against a top side. I think a result on the opening day is big but so is a result against either Palace or Everton early on. |
Yeah agree with that a win needs to be followed up with something else quickly on the board especially away from home. | |
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| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 11:38 - Aug 11 | FrimleyBlue |
40 by jan and the 5th by march |  |
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| Good analysis; do agree with most… but by end of October on 13:50 - Aug 11 | Blue_Heath |
| Good analysis; do agree with most… but by end of October on 11:16 - Aug 11 by unstableblue |
… we want more than 8 points
I think clubs that survive build momentum early… it’s not something you pick up. Start well so you’ve broken the back of the points tally.
To get to 40 points you need 1.05 PPG.
We’d be at 0.88 at end of October, so already on back foot.
I’d like to see us on 11 points - a win against Hull away and a draw against Forest at home or Everton away.
Now I know results won’t match exactly you or mine predictions. They’ll be swings and round abouts and we may get a shock win against a big club.
But 8 for me is too low at the end of October with the games we have and the momentum we need. |
You may well be correct re momentum and yes on paper 8 looks too low but as you say results won't go as planned. | |
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| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 15:28 - Aug 11 | CrockerITFC |
Realistically to have any hope of surviving this season I think 4 points off fellow relegation battlers isn't enough, we need all 6 imo.
Both Fulham and Newcastle are unknown quantities to a certain extent, I'm doubtful about whether they'll struggle as much as people seem to think. Also, playing Sunderland first game is a bit unfortunate as the extra Europa League games could've been more of a help had we played them later...granted it's better than starting with Liverpool and Man City. [Post edited 11 Aug 15:33]
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| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 16:07 - Aug 11 | Oldsmoker |
| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 10:24 - Aug 11 by Blue_Heath |
Yes beating the teams around you is huge if we can take that 12 not only is it a huge chunk of points but also means we then need to only finish above one other club. |
My thinking as well.
We just need to get more points than 3 other teams.
Coventry, Fulham and Hull. |  |
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| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 16:15 - Aug 11 | surreyblue |
Compared to last time its home form that needs sorting. 7 wins/3 draws at home and 3 wins/7 draws away gets us to 40 points. We pretty much hit that away target (3 wins/6 draws) but were woefully short at home (1 win / 4 draws).
Where do those wins and draws come from? Two wins each from Coventry and Hull. Points taken from the "big 6" plus Villa can probably be seen as a bonus. That leaves home and away games against 10 teams to get 5 wins/3 draws at home, and 1 win/7 draws away from home (or could position it as 5 wins/5 draws at home, and 1 win/5 draws away from home). | | | |
| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 16:22 - Aug 11 | Swansea_Blue |
| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 11:29 - Aug 11 by unstableblue |
If we can get a strong striker and number 8 and/10, plus a strong right back well stand a chance.
We’ll have to start strongly |
Starting strongly would be nice of course, but not essential. Plenty of teams have had slow starts and then picked up. David Moyes has even made a career out of it (sort of). It would settle everyone down though wouldn’t it | |
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| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 17:18 - Aug 11 | Vaughan8 |
I know this is all a bit of "fun" but until the season starts, we have no idea, other than the usual suspects at the top, and maybe a few lower teams, what any of the other teams are like.
Admittingly the PL could be argued as easier to predict than some leagues.
I know one thing for certain, to stay up you need to be pretty good at home. You've got 9 wins so lets home that's about right! | | | |
| My route to survival if it's 40 points on 20:12 - Aug 11 | Pinewoodblue |
Accept we will finish in the bottom seven. Identify the other six clubs. For me it would, in no particular order, be Hull, Coventry, Fulham, Brentford, Bournemouth & Crystal Palace.
Finish top two in that mini league and you should be safe. |  |
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