| Fulham game huge now 18:21 - Sep 20 with 2232 views | Blue_Heath |
An opportunity to create a nice gap or have them breathing down our necks. |  |
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| Fulham game huge now on 18:24 - Sep 20 with 1894 views | Dubtractor |
Heathers mate, its really not necessary to build every game up into a season defining event! |  |
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| Fulham game huge now on 18:25 - Sep 20 with 1874 views | Benters |
They are all huge buh. |  |
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| Fulham game huge now on 18:28 - Sep 20 with 1852 views | franz_tyson |
If we can beat Fulham then it's downhill from there on in. Can't see anybody catching us. | | | |
| Fulham game huge now on 18:29 - Sep 20 with 1840 views | pointofblue |
| Fulham game huge now on 18:24 - Sep 20 by Dubtractor |
Heathers mate, its really not necessary to build every game up into a season defining event! |
However much we try and down play it, it is the kind of game we need to win if we want to survive. Unless we can pull off a surprise result elsewhere to balance it out. | |
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| Fulham game huge now on 18:31 - Sep 20 with 1827 views | carlo88 |
Draw was quite a good result for us today, reckon that late equaliser will demoralise them a bit. |  | | |
| Fulham game huge now on 18:34 - Sep 20 with 1799 views | Dubtractor |
| Fulham game huge now on 18:29 - Sep 20 by pointofblue |
However much we try and down play it, it is the kind of game we need to win if we want to survive. Unless we can pull off a surprise result elsewhere to balance it out. |
Of course its a game we should be targeting for a win, alongside home games against 10 or so other teams who won't challenge the top places, but we will lose some of them and that won't be the end of the world. | |
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| Fulham game huge now on 18:37 - Sep 20 with 1772 views | Alberto_the_frog |
| Fulham game huge now on 18:24 - Sep 20 by Dubtractor |
Heathers mate, its really not necessary to build every game up into a season defining event! |
It's a big, big game. In other words, huge. |  |
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| Fulham game huge now on 18:46 - Sep 20 with 1695 views | muccletonjoe |
We could do with winning it, especially looking at the games which come after it. But it is not huge, we could lose 2 and win one out of the next 3 and still have 9 points from 8 games. |  | | |
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| Fulham game huge now on 19:01 - Sep 20 with 1628 views | You_Bloo_Right |
| Fulham game huge now on 18:37 - Sep 20 by Alberto_the_frog |
It's a big, big game. In other words, huge. |
Bigly. |  |
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| Fulham game huge now on 22:45 - Sep 20 with 1349 views | Rimsy |
Fulham will be OK. Good enough not to be drawn into a relegation battle. |  |
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| Fulham game huge now on 23:11 - Sep 20 with 1291 views | Bugs |
| Fulham game huge now on 18:34 - Sep 20 by Dubtractor |
Of course its a game we should be targeting for a win, alongside home games against 10 or so other teams who won't challenge the top places, but we will lose some of them and that won't be the end of the world. |
I pretty much had this attitude until I looked at the data. These early-season games are far, far more important than people think in terms of a promoted team staying up.
The stats tell us that not getting a point yesterday has massively hit our survival chances to less than a 30% chance of staying up. If we had got a point, the chances would have been closer to 80% (in the 20 team prem era, only 3 promoted teams have ever been relegated after having 7 points after 5 games; the majority of promoted teams with 6 points after 5 games go down).
3 points against Fulham will be a massive help towards edging up those unfavourable odds in our favour. We need points on the board, and we need them as fast as possible, is what history tells us. |  | | |
| Fulham game huge now on 23:19 - Sep 20 with 1272 views | benrhyddingblue |
| Fulham game huge now on 23:11 - Sep 20 by Bugs |
I pretty much had this attitude until I looked at the data. These early-season games are far, far more important than people think in terms of a promoted team staying up.
The stats tell us that not getting a point yesterday has massively hit our survival chances to less than a 30% chance of staying up. If we had got a point, the chances would have been closer to 80% (in the 20 team prem era, only 3 promoted teams have ever been relegated after having 7 points after 5 games; the majority of promoted teams with 6 points after 5 games go down).
3 points against Fulham will be a massive help towards edging up those unfavourable odds in our favour. We need points on the board, and we need them as fast as possible, is what history tells us. |
Thanks, no point in going to any more games as we didn’t get a draw yesterday. Season is over. | | | |
| Fulham game huge now on 23:21 - Sep 20 with 1266 views | Bugs |
| Fulham game huge now on 23:19 - Sep 20 by benrhyddingblue |
Thanks, no point in going to any more games as we didn’t get a draw yesterday. Season is over. |
That isn't what I said. Maybe read again and come back with a sensible comment. | | | |
| Fulham game huge now on 06:11 - Sep 21 with 1099 views | Blue_Heath |
| Fulham game huge now on 23:21 - Sep 20 by Bugs |
That isn't what I said. Maybe read again and come back with a sensible comment. |
Many here read what they want to read, 'opportunity' means season defining apparently, who knew? | |
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| Fulham game huge now on 07:38 - Sep 21 with 974 views | You_Bloo_Right |
| Fulham game huge now on 23:11 - Sep 20 by Bugs |
I pretty much had this attitude until I looked at the data. These early-season games are far, far more important than people think in terms of a promoted team staying up.
The stats tell us that not getting a point yesterday has massively hit our survival chances to less than a 30% chance of staying up. If we had got a point, the chances would have been closer to 80% (in the 20 team prem era, only 3 promoted teams have ever been relegated after having 7 points after 5 games; the majority of promoted teams with 6 points after 5 games go down).
3 points against Fulham will be a massive help towards edging up those unfavourable odds in our favour. We need points on the board, and we need them as fast as possible, is what history tells us. |
Those plain stats presumably take little to no account of the teams faced in those first five games though and whether home or away.
Wouldn't such facftors impact those percentages? | |
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| Fulham game huge now on 07:50 - Sep 21 with 940 views | SmithersJones |
| Fulham game huge now on 07:38 - Sep 21 by You_Bloo_Right |
Those plain stats presumably take little to no account of the teams faced in those first five games though and whether home or away.
Wouldn't such facftors impact those percentages? |
I think what Bugs is saying is that in the final analysis those factors don’t influence much (although I agree with you in that I would have expected they did). The stats cover every conceivable start to the season - easy, hard, injury hit etc, yet time and again anythong less than an excellent start leads to relegation. But think I’m right in saying the stats for established Premier League teams are different.
Of course that doesn’t mean we (or Coventry for that matter) will follow suit but the pattern is clear. | | | |
| Fulham game huge now on 08:09 - Sep 21 with 886 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Fulham game huge now on 06:11 - Sep 21 by Blue_Heath |
Many here read what they want to read, 'opportunity' means season defining apparently, who knew? |
But he meant you act like this over virtually every game.
And also, it's not any bigger now. It was just as big before the season started (in terms of games we'd think we have a decent chance of a win). |  |
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| Fulham game huge now on 08:28 - Sep 21 with 844 views | Guthrum |
| Fulham game huge now on 22:45 - Sep 20 by Rimsy |
Fulham will be OK. Good enough not to be drawn into a relegation battle. |
Not currently. |  |
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| Fulham game huge now on 08:37 - Sep 21 with 802 views | Benters |
| Fulham game huge now on 08:09 - Sep 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
But he meant you act like this over virtually every game.
And also, it's not any bigger now. It was just as big before the season started (in terms of games we'd think we have a decent chance of a win). |
He’s only having a chat with us bunch of sados Dolly.
Chill Dude 😎 | |
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| Fulham game huge now on 08:39 - Sep 21 with 803 views | wischip |
I just watched Sunday's MOTD and had a wry smile when Man U were appealing for a penalty when the ball struck that Fulham defender's hands as he put them up but inside the frame of his body. |  | | |
| Fulham game huge now on 08:40 - Sep 21 with 801 views | You_Bloo_Right |
| Fulham game huge now on 08:37 - Sep 21 by Benters |
He’s only having a chat with us bunch of sados Dolly.
Chill Dude 😎 |
Hmm "sados" (implying perhaps sadists?) or "saddos" (more akin to sad old people?).
Guess it works either way.
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| Fulham game huge now on 11:38 - Sep 21 with 613 views | Rimsy |
| Fulham game huge now on 08:28 - Sep 21 by Guthrum |
Not currently. |
No, quite. Luckily for them the season's not decided after 5 or 6 games. | |
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| Fulham game huge now on 11:45 - Sep 21 with 590 views | Libero |
| Fulham game huge now on 18:24 - Sep 20 by Dubtractor |
Heathers mate, its really not necessary to build every game up into a season defining event! |
That's the problem, isn't it? - I can quite understand why some people might feel that way, but we've got to keep our powder dry and carry on, business as usual, we earned the right to be here- we've started well!
If we can average a point per game, it's good enough, and we're above that, as it stands! |  | | |
| Fulham game huge now on 11:59 - Sep 21 with 557 views | Bugs |
| Fulham game huge now on 07:38 - Sep 21 by You_Bloo_Right |
Those plain stats presumably take little to no account of the teams faced in those first five games though and whether home or away.
Wouldn't such facftors impact those percentages? |
You would have thought so, wouldn't you? But no.
The poster that posted a thread on what these stats are based on a few months back (sorry I can't remember who) did look at the teams faced in those first 5 games. It made little or no difference.......if I remember their post correctly.
A tough fixture list to the start of the season and not many points, teams don't tend to get points back later from the 'easier fixtures' later on.
A fast start (or 7 points in 5 games), whoever you are playing in those first 5 games, is huge in terms of odds of staying up. | | | |
| Fulham game huge now on 12:01 - Sep 21 with 534 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Fulham game huge now on 08:37 - Sep 21 by Benters |
He’s only having a chat with us bunch of sados Dolly.
Chill Dude 😎 |
I'm chilled Mr. Benters. I've just been reading in the park. Lovely sunny day here in Cry Pal. | |
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